Uzbekistan’s Accession to the World Trade Organization: Process, Expected Economic Impact and Compatibility with Eurasian Economic Union Observer Status

Abstract

The Republic of Uzbekistan applied to join the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, and subsequently the World Trade Organization (WTO), in 1994. After a decade of limited progress and fifteen years of dormancy, negotiations were revived in 2020 and accelerated sharply from 2023. By the thirteenth meeting of the Working Party on 27–28 July 2026, Uzbekistan had concluded nearly all bilateral market access negotiations and aligned hundreds of legal acts with WTO rules, while stating its aim to complete accession in 2026. This article reviews the history and legal mechanics of the accession, the objectives pursued by the Uzbek government and the economic effects expected by official and independent sources. It then examines a question of particular importance for Central Asia: the relationship between WTO membership and Uzbekistan’s observer status in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), granted in December 2020. Drawing on the accession experience of Kazakhstan and on WTO disputes involving the Russian Federation, including Russia — Tariff Treatment (DS485) and Russia — Traffic in Transit (DS512), the article argues that WTO membership and EAEU observer status are compatible, but that any move toward full EAEU membership would create a conflict between Uzbekistan’s bound WTO tariffs and the EAEU common external tariff. The article concludes by identifying the principal risks of the near future, including adjustment costs for domestic producers, pressure on agricultural support and state-owned enterprises, and the constraints of a weakened WTO dispute settlement system.